(Alliance News) – UK food prices are on track to rise by 50% in November compared to levels at the start of the cost of living crisis by mid-2021, according to research.
The “horrific milestone” will mean that the price growth seen in the nearly 20 years before the crisis will be achieved in just over five years – almost four times the pace of food inflation, the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit said. [ECIU] think tank means.
The combination of extreme weather driven by climate change, global supply disruptions, and continued exposure to volatile oil and gas markets has added pressure to the food system.
According to the analysis, the cost of basic items including pasta, frozen vegetables, chocolate, eggs and beef – all increased between 50% and 64% – and olive oil, which increased by 113%, had already seen the highest increase, showing its sensitivity to fluctuating prices of oil and gas, the production costs of fertilizers and the effects of weather such as floods, droughts and UK heat.
Together, these forces increased household food bills by an average of GBP605 between 2022 and 2023, with energy shocks accounting for GBP244 of this, the ECIU said.
Recently, five climate-impacting foods – butter, milk, beef, chocolate and coffee – have been the cause of sustained food inflation, as the price of these foods is rising four times faster than other foods and beverages.
Chris Jaccarini, food and agriculture analyst at ECIU, said: “Trump’s war in the Middle East will increase consumer spending as oil and gas prices rise.
“Scientists are predicting 2027 as the hottest year on record due to climate change coupled with the El Nino effect starting this year. England’s worst crop on record in the last five years.
“Unless we get to net zero production to stop climate change and bring balance to the system, food prices will go up a lot, but net zero also means burning less oil and gas, so protecting our food system from the kind of rising prices we’ve seen since Russia invaded Ukraine.”
The ECIU said the projected 50% increase would mean many households would continue to struggle beyond the first phase of the cost of living crisis, with food remaining a visible and unavoidable cost.
Anna Taylor, executive director of the Food Foundation, said: “Food prices are rising at this rate and this acceleration is leaving low-income families with nowhere to cut back on the food on their plate.
“When that happens, people skip meals, children go hungry, and food-related illnesses rise – putting parents out of work and putting pressure on an NHS that can’t afford it.
“This collapse is the latest shock in a series, and there will be more. The question for the government is not just how to respond to this crisis – it is whether we will end up building a food system that can withstand the next one.”
The latest inflation figures from Worldpanel by Numerator show that grocery prices are currently 3.8% higher than last year, with households warning that the Middle East conflict “hasn’t reached” supermarket shelves.
As consumers adjust to higher prices, data from the Waste & Resources Action Programme [Wrap] they suggest that self-reported waste for four key products – bread, milk, chicken and potatoes – will drop from 21% to 19% from 2024.
Despite this, food waste is ranked fifth among key concerns, behind food prices, food health, animal welfare, and processed or highly processed food, “suggesting it’s a background issue rather than a top-level issue”, says Wrap.
Concerns that have increased significantly since 2024 include the use of pesticides, how food producers and farmers are treated, genetically modified foods, and hormones, steroids, and antibiotics in food.
Packaging Chief Executive Catherine David said: “The average family of four spends a whopping GBP1,000 each year on good food that goes in the bin and could be eaten.”
By Josie Clarke, Consumer Affairs Correspondent for The News Agency
Press Agency: Finance
source: PA
Copyright 2026 Alliance News Ltd. All rights reserved.
Business News Economic Affairs Selling
