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Despite the Iran conflict, we have yet to see a stock market crash. Is that about to change? Nobody really knows.
I FTSE 100 has been volatile but overall has increased by 4.15% so far in 2026. In 12 months, it is up 20.5%. With dividends reinvested, the total return approaches 25%. Yet investors remain bullish and understandably so.
The world is facing the biggest oil shock in history, according to the International Energy Agency. If the Strait of Hormuz tanker route remains closed, The Macquarie Group warns oil could reach $200 in summer. It’s a Bank Holiday today (4th May), and the UK market is closed. What can we expect when it reopens tomorrow? It may go down, go up or not do much at all. But the thing is, I don’t care what it does.
What will I do in the meltdown?
Brent crude reached $124 a barrel last week. Today, it’s down to $109. Sentiments have been heightened by Donald Trump’s vow that the US will direct ships to Hormuz. He also said that negotiations with Iran were ongoing “very positive” and it can lead to a wider decline. If that holds, the FTSE 100 could jump tomorrow. But a new pullback could trigger the long-feared crash. It hangs in the balance.
Second-guessing market movements is irrational though. Instead, I mean buying opportunities as they arise. And I see a lot of impulse buys both in the recession and today when it really doesn’t happen. One of them is a private firm listed on the FTSE 100 3i Group (LSE: III).
The investment trust has a history dating back to 1946, when it was established to help British small and medium-sized businesses secure long-term capital to rebuild and expand. Today, 3i takes control of mid-market companies, managing them to generate sustainable growth and shareholder returns.
One company has performed exceptionally well and now accounts for 70% of 3i’s entire portfolio. A non-discount food retailer Action is growing rapidly in Europe, growing gradually and controlling thousands of stores. By 2025, net sales will rise another 16.1% to €16bn. Now 3i is preparing to crack the US, which could take it to the next level.
Ready for a great recovery?
Despite Action’s success, 3i shares have fallen 22% in the past three months, and 40% over the year. Personally, I think they are climbing too far, too fast. Action sales growth should slow down at some point. Many investors may also be wary of US expansion plans, as it is a tough market to crack.
3i has also been hit by broader stock market uncertainty. A stock tends to fall faster than the index on bad days, and rise faster on good ones. But here’s the fun, in my opinion. The investment trust now trades at a 15.8% discount to the underlying value of its assets. For years, it traded at a high price. I think it is worth considering for investors to face the challenge. I used the recent dips to buy more for myself. So have 3i guides.
History shows that even if we get a direct crash, it won’t last forever. Regardless of what happens next week, I’ll be keeping an eye out to see which stocks emerge as the best bargains.
