There has been a lot of fear recently that mortgage rates may rise back above 7% or more this year.
The driver has been inflation related to $100+ oil, which increases the cost of everything.
But the so-called “problems” are still well-diversified and have a 50% chance of rising above 6.8%, according to Kashi, who provides and tracks forecast markets.
This doesn’t mean they are right, but it shows you where the price is currently settling.
So maybe there’s something (in a bad way!) about 30 years fixed, despite everything that’s going on.
Will 30-Year Fixed Income Rise Above 6.80% Again This Year?
At a glance, Kalshi’s “How high will the 30-year mortgage rate go this year” market has a 50-50 chance of rising above 6.8%.
This is any time in the next six months and the remaining change in the year 2026.
That’s not a lot of confidence since everyone has been complaining that mortgage rates may go up with inflation.
It uses Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) as a source.
As of last week, the 30-year fixed rate has reached 6.51%, according to PMMS, so it would have to increase 30 basis points to get above that 6.8%.
Kalshi is currently selling the “yes” contract for this market at $0.47 each. So $100 worth $0.47 will buy you 213 contracts.
The way it works is if you were to put a $100 stake in a 30 year fixed income going over 6.8%, and it hits, you’d earn $113 in profit.
In other words, those contracts have value per dollar if the 30-year fixed rate exceeds 6.8%.
I’m not saying I did it, and I don’t, but I thought it was an interesting way to look at what’s possible based on public perception.
The 30-Year Fixed Income Was Up 6.8% In 16 Of The 52 Weeks Last Year
I looked back at mortgage rates in 2025 based on Freddie Mac data and found that there were 16 weeks where the 30-year fixed rate was above 6.8% last year.
That’s more than a quarter of the time, almost a third, when conditions were relatively similar.
And remember, we didn’t have an Iranian conflict with oil prices above $100, and renewed fears of inflation.
That doesn’t mean mortgage rates are going back up, but it also wouldn’t scare me.
I have long said that rates could briefly touch 7% or rise above 7% this year.
Of course, it depends on how Freddie Mac captures the data.
Their weekly survey is often delayed because they collect mortgage quotes throughout the week (early Thursday through Wednesday) and send them out on Thursday.
This means that they rarely capture all the movement of the scale, especially if it is short.
For example, you may have a day or two when prices go up, but then they ease up again and Freddie Mac never captures it. Or it is diluted on low days.
Conversely, you’ll see that rate move in a daily mortgage index like Mortgage News Daily’s.
As for when the 30-year freeze was last above 6.8%, it was the week of June 18, 2025.
The main difference this year compared to last year is that the mortgage rate has increased significantly.
This means you need the 10-year bond yield to rise even more this year, all things being equal.
It could still happen, but it will be driven by what’s happening in Iran.
If a peace agreement or similar settlement is reached any time soon, we may not even receive nearly 6.8%.
If the conflict drags on or worsens, something higher than 6.8% or even 7% is completely conceivable.
The kind of good news here is that mortgage rates may have a bit of a ceiling at current levels, so the worst may be behind us.
Before creating this site, I worked as an account manager for a real estate broker in Los Angeles. My experiences in the early 2000s inspired me to start writing about mortgages 19 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the mortgage process. Follow me on X for the hottest.
