Private debt and the 2026 World Cup may seem like worlds apart, but both depend on managerial choices, navigating a crowded field and adapting to changing circumstances, according to AlbaCore Capital Group.
The World Cup showed how quickly momentum can change. One goal, injury or tactical adjustment can change the course of an entire tournament.
The same is the case with private debt, as the industry’s main momentum is challenged in the first half of 2026, and in the last half of 2025, by many factors. Those include AI disruption, business development company (BDC) rescues and private debt financing concerns, according to David Allen, managing partner and chief investment officer at AlbaCore Capital Group.
Allen said the period when private debt delivered strong returns across the market between 2022 and 2024 has given way to an environment in which management selection and underwriting behavior are critical.
As macroeconomic conditions become more challenging, with renewed concerns of inflation, conflict in the Middle East and energy price volatility, the ability to identify strong business models and distinguish between those at risk of economic stress has become increasingly important.
Drawing the same from the World Cup, the same resilience is needed for soccer teams to adapt to changing weather, climate, and altitude, Allen said.
“It’s about having the flexibility and resilience to work in many situations,” he said.
“In many respects, the time was waning in terms of the collapse of fundamentals and the widening of the divide between winners and losers.”
Read more: Private debt lenders are stepping up to finance European football clubs
Allen also pointed out the profit received by the countries that will be hosting the World Cup games in the US, Canada and Mexico. Home teams have benefited from familiar conditions, local support and, in some cases, the superiority of places like Azteca, except in comparison to England.
He says Europe enjoys the same domestic advantage in sovereign debt.
As BDCs experienced an outflow of investors, they withdrew from lending in the European market, reducing competition and allowing prices and lending conditions to improve.
At the same time, many of the factors that have historically distinguished European direct lending remain intact, including tight documentation, low EBITDA adjustments and a strong emphasis on collateral protection.
Read more: European CLO issuance rises as direct lending cools
“As we reach the halfway point of the year, the headline spread has not changed despite a six-month period that has left many market participants wishing for a hydration break,” Allen said. “But despite the mood swings this year, credit fundamentals have remained stronger than the headlines suggest.
“The lesson, in our view, is that technical market pressures and fundamental credit quality should not be confused.”
Read more: Executives are hunting for software winners and losers amid the AI scare
